The Nokia Lumia 900 is the best Windows Phone so far, but it isn't Microsoft's make-or-break smartphone move. That won't happen until this fall, with Windows Phone 8 "Apollo," and the wireless carriers know it.
The Lumia 900 is a good phone, and Microsoft isn't writing off the first half of this year. But this fall, a whole constellation of things will come into alignment to make the 2012 holiday period the true test for Microsoft's smartphone platform. Think about it:
- Windows 8 will probably arrive this October, bringing "Metro" style apps to millions of people. Even more excitingly, W8 might run Windows Phone apps out of the box, so it'll become much more appealing for developers to write Windows Phone apps which could run on both phones and PCs.
- Manufacturers will start selling Windows 8 PCs, Windows 8 tablets, and Windows Phone 8 devices in tandem.
- Microsoft will put a huge marketing push behind Metro on Windows 8 which will bleed over quite liberally to Windows Phone 8.
- Windows Phone 8 will almost certainly support Qualcomm's S4 chipsets, with integrated LTE. This makes it much easier to build a 4G WP8 phone than with the Nokia Lumia 900, where Nokia had to pair a separate processor and modem.
- CDMA carriers will jump back on board the platform with Windows Phone 8. I've heard insiders at Sprint say that WP8 will be their on-ramp back to Windows Phone.
- Carriers and manufacturers will still be looking for a way to stave off an Apple/Google duopoly. For the first year of Windows Phone's life, at least carriers had BlackBerry. Insert your own prediction about RIM's position here.
I know it sounds insane to say this about two years' worth of work, but everything with Windows Phone so far has been prologue. Microsoft's consumer business is positioning itself for the post-PC era, and the real play there is offering a consistent experience across phones, tablets, Xboxes and its home market, PCs.
To succeed, Microsoft needs to pull all of those devices into alignment. That's going to happen with Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 (as long as the two OSes are released at roughly the same time.) It isn't happening yet.
Nokia, Not Microsoft, Is Desperate
So why the big push behind the Lumia 900? Microsoft needs to show some momentum, but isn't about Microsoft, really. It's about Nokia.
Microsoft is very rich and very patient. Riding on a comfortable cushion of Office, server, and business software profits, it can afford to draw out a long-term strategy. And this patience has paid off for Microsoft before. The Xbox group started with several unprofitable years, but has since become a money-maker for the company.
Nokia, on the other hand, needs to stop a terrifying downward slide. If the company doesn't come up with best-selling smartphones, it'll be even more dependent on its sales of low-cost, low-profit feature phones like the new Asha line. Re-inflating the top end of its product line is an urgent task for Nokia. Otherwise, it may face being dismembered into a feature-phone firm and a wholly-owned smartphone division of Microsoft. The U.S. has been a largely unserved market for Nokia for years, so there's a lot of potential for growth here. Almost every smartphone the company sells here is a new smartphone customer for Nokia.
So keep an eye on those Lumia 900 sales and Nokia Lumia 900 reviews, but don't think this is the last word for Microsoft in phones. Let's check back around Thanksgiving and discuss this again.
