The question isn't whether Windows 8 can kill Android on tablets, but whether it can compete with the iPad.
I'm happy to see that the Microsoft PR folks are cranking up the publicity machine to extol the virtues of Windows 8. I haven't seen this much activity since Windows 95. I'm on the record as predicting that this thing is a failure on the desktop and has already failed on the smartphone. But, we all know that this is actually a tablet OS. What about that?
A developer from The Kernel, a UK publication, writes that, if nothing else, Windows 8 will kill Android on the tablet. Unfortunately, his overall logic leads me to wonder, even if it does kill the Android, so what? My musing is based on the following information cited in the article:
In Q1 2012, there were 17.4 million tablets sold, 11.8 million of those were iPads. 4.8 million of those were Amazon devices leaving 800,000 to share between Android, Nook and other random e-readers and tablets.
In other words, it's an iPad world. Killing the Android tablet is like shooting a horse with a broken leg. It would be a mercy killing. Afterward, what would Microsoft inherit? A pathetic niche?
Let me make a few observations about developers. Most follow the money, meaning they look at market size and see if they can get a piece of the action. These tend to be the more successful developers. Others—the contrarians—look to be the big fish in the small pond. They go off and find smaller underserved markets and try to dominate. This can prove to be a bonanza if the smaller market product suddenly emerges as a world beater. The strategy has paid off for people who kept developing for the Mac, for example, but hasn't paid off for Linux developers (yet), although Red Hat and Apache have done very well.
So, the thinking is that the iPad is stalling and something new can make hay. That something new, though, does not appear to be the Android.
As an aside, I want to address all cries about forking the Android OS out there and how bad it is for its future. My Android phone went from a 2.x OS to 4.04 (Ice Cream Sandwich) in one day with an upgrade. I have maybe 50 apps on the phone and they all worked fine after the upgrade. I'm not seeing the problem. But I digress.
Most people who hate on Windows 8 all tend to agree that it is targeting the pad computer to an extreme. Let's go with that thinking and let's even accept the fact that Microsoft is going to go all in with this OS on the tablet.First of all, we must understand that Microsoft has misfired on the tablet at least twice, big time. The first was back in the days of WinPad and the second was more recently in 2001 when Bill Gates said these devices would rule the world by 2006. While I'll actually credit him for being right (albeit missing the date), Microsoft's 2001 vision of the tablet was again flawed and failed miserably. In fact, it appeared as if it killed the sector forever.
Then came the iPad and Microsoft is once again back in the game with two noteworthy fails on its resume. Does anyone think the company can now nail it? It's a safe bet to expect it can't, and that's why it is so easy to predict failure and be correct.
The problem I have with the Kernel article and the whole Android killer notion is that no one actually cares. Shouldn't the target be the Apple iPad? Is the Windows 8 tablet going to be an iPad killer or not?
It seems unlikely. But have a go. And don't expect any sympathy if it fails again.
You can Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter @therealdvorak.
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